The dark side of Brussels' energy policy: Climate transition primarily serves the nuclear industry
The new Commission has yet to be formed, but the European Council has already set out its programme for the coming years: alongside security and defence issues, the agenda includes a "just and fair climate transition" while simultaneously reducing energy imports. In fact, it is about a "genuine energy union", a deeper integration of the European energy markets. These are excellent conditions for the nuclear industry, which senses good business opportunities at the expense of the EU member states.
In an interview with US broadcaster CBS, Bill Gates recently spoke about “a matter close to his heart”. With his start-up Terrapower [1] , the founder of Microsoft wants to build smaller and more efficient nuclear reactors. Bill Gates has already invested over one billion US dollars in Terrapower. He plans to invest billions more in the project. A first commercial reactor in the US state of Wyoming is to be completed by 2030. Gates says:
"The growth will be in the clean sources: sun, wind, and nuclear. But we won't get there to be 100% green, you know, the goal is to get rid of all emissions by 2050. Even that's pretty ambitious."[2]
Bill Gates knows how to get business off to a good start. In addition to Terrapower's private investors, the US federal government is a key partner: the USA would have to at least triple its current nuclear capacity. However, in Europe, too, the signs are good for a new era in the field of nuclear power.
In 2023, the European Parliament and the EU member states included nuclear power alongside renewable energies in the list of subsidised technologies in the Net-Zero Industry Act.[3]
A small majority of 14 EU states are now members of a nuclear power alliance under French leadership. France obtains around 65% of its electricity from nuclear power, while the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Romania have also long favoured nuclear energy. Others, such as Sweden and Poland, also want to put their money on this card.
In Brussels, the doors are wide open for nuclear lobbyists, especially when it comes to the development of a new generation of small modular reactors (SMRs). It is rumoured that there are already concrete plans for this in Estonia, the Czech Republic and Poland.
In addition, Sweden wants to connect two reactors to the grid by 2035 with a new nuclear construction programme, followed by a further ten units by 2045. An expansion is also underway in Slovakia. Poland, which wants to reduce the proportion of its electricity production from lignite and hard coal from currently more than 70% to less than 10% by 2040, is planning to connect two new nuclear power plants to the grid in 2033 and 2038 and together produce up to nine gigawatts in the long term. [4]
Good business opportunities
The framework conditions for the nuclear lobby in Europe have rarely been as favourable as they are at present. The explanation is simple: if the EU wants to reduce energy imports from third countries, it must significantly increase its own energy production. In 2022, the EU's energy dependency totalled 63%, meaning that it must cover more than half of its energy needs from imports. In addition to Germany, 17 other EU member states import more than 50% of their energy consumption, including the large economies of Spain (74%) and Italy (78%).[5]
The largest exporter in absolute terms is by far France (90.8 TWh), followed by Germany (52 TWh) and Sweden (42.40 TWh).[6]
The example of Italy, the third largest economy in the EU, shows the dilemma of import-dependent countries: less than a quarter of the energy required is generated in this country itself. The Ministry for the Environment did present a draft in Brussels in mid-2023, which also provides for an increase in investment in renewable energies of around 30 billion euros among the environmental targets. However, this alone will not be nearly enough - especially not to cover the base load. For this reason, the Italian Chamber of Deputies ordered an investigation into the reintroduction of nuclear power at the beginning of March. This comes after Italy's National Energy Agency (ENEA) signed a memorandum of understanding last November with Ansaldo Nucleare, RATEN, SCK CEN and Westinghouse Electric Company for the joint industry-wide development of small modular reactors (SMRs).[7]
Import-dependent member states are worried about their security of supply, which is under increasing pressure due to the EU's massive interventions in the energy market and the states’ growing demand for energy.
The Brussels institutions are continuing to drive forward the phase-out of carbon-based energy sources, particularly from Russia. According to the Commission's latest energy report, total gas consumption in 2023 was 7% lower than in 2022 and 20% lower than in 2021. In this context, total imports of Russian gas fell to 43 billion cubic metres (bcm), compared to 79 bcm in 2022 and 150 bcm in 2021. [8]
Construction at state expense
This policy, which is now to be continued for the next five years, clears the field for the major suppliers in the nuclear energy sector. Manufacturers from China, Europe, North America, East Asia and Russia currently offer generation three and three plus reactor systems on the global market. SMRs are also being developed worldwide, for example by the American companies NuScale, Holtec and the Terrapower. Against the backdrop of the ongoing sanctions policy against Russia and the trade war against China, there is no doubt as to which suppliers in Europe hold the better cards.
However, this aspect of the European energy transition is becoming expensive. Nuclear power plants always produce the same amount of electricity - that is their greatest advantage and - at the same time - their disadvantage: nuclear power plants are extremely unsuitable as flexible power plants to compensate for fluctuations in energy production from the wind or sun.
In addition, the EU member states do not have any significant uranium deposits. In this regard they will become again dependent on third countries. This has been a major issue for France since the political changes in Niger. As far as the supply of uranium is concerned, the EU member states will have to include Russia and its influence in the calculations in the long term.
Above all, however, nuclear power plants are expensive to build and therefore not marketable without massive state subsidies. This is demonstrated not least by the Flamanville (France) and Hinkley Point (UK) new-build projects.[9]
Perhaps this is the reason why think tanks such as Bruegel are calling for a green EU funding to be financed by new joint EU debt.[10]
However, further high levels of debt would be fatal for the member states, especially the members of the eurozone.
The ECB has saddled the states with 6,000 billion euros in debt through its financial and debt policy, thereby laying the foundations for a "debt union". It should be remembered that the ECB's capital comes from the national banks and currently amounts to just over 10 billion euros.[11]
The disastrous interaction between the ECB, Commission and Council during the Covid-19 pandemic, the Ukraine crisis and the interventions in the energy sector have driven the debt spiral ever further. This is now causing deep distortions in national economies and is also resulting in ever greater social damage.
Against this backdrop, the agenda for the next five years should be viewed with concern - especially regarding the deeper integration of the European energy markets. If the member states continue to (jointly) go into debt to finance the necessary subsidies for the nuclear energy upgrade, this will significantly exacerbate the negative consequences for the national economies. EU-Europe will continue to fall behind in international competition for decades to come. Corporations and the financial industry, on the other hand, will be rubbing their hands: profits will be privatised, while costs will be socialised.
This analysis was first published at Valdai Discussion Club on August 20th, 2024.
[1] https://www.terrapower.com/
[2] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bill-gates-transcript-face-the-nation-06-16-2024/
[3 https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-16056-2023-INIT/en/pdf?utm_source=dsms-auto&utm...
[4] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/polen-akw-104.html
[5] https://www.destatis.de/Europa/DE/Thema/Umwelt-Energie/Energieabhaengigkeit.html#:~:text=Europe%20En....
[6] https://www.energy-charts.info/charts/import_export/chart.htm?l=de&c=DE&year=2023&flow=scheduled_commercial_exchanges_all
[7] https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/italy-presses-ahead-with-nuclear-as-energy-transition...
[8] https://energy.ec.europa.eu/news/quarterly-reports-confirm-significant-recovery-eu-gas-and-electrici...
[9] https://www.handelszeitung.ch/politik/akws-faszinieren-sind-nicht-die-losung-720583
[10] https://www.bruegel.org/first-glance/procrastination-not-dismantlement-now-threatens-european-green-...
[11] https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/orga/capital/html/index.fr.html